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The Resurgence of Toronto Blue Jays Relievers
When the Toronto Blue Jays began the season missing their top two high-leverage relievers, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson, the need for others to step up became glaringly apparent. It was time for arms further down the bullpen pecking order to rise to the occasion.
Chad Green and Yimi García seized the opportunity at the back end of the bullpen, demonstrating their prowess with a combined 11.1 innings of 2.38 ERA ball. Their impact is underscored by a significant win probability added total of +0.81.
Green’s established track record as a quality late-inning arm, paired with Garcia’s newfound velocity boost resulting in the highest average fastball velocity of his career at 96.9 mph, has been instrumental in fortifying the bullpen.
Trevor Richards: An Unexpected Revelation
A rather unexpected standout in this bullpen resurgence is Trevor Richards. Initially viewed as a long-relief candidate, Richards has defied expectations with a commanding performance. Currently ranking third among Blue Jays relievers in average leverage index and sporting a stellar 2.70 ERA, Richards has exceeded all projections.
Notably, Richards’ ERA fails to capture the full extent of his dominance, as the only runs he has conceded this season came off a single home run hit at 95.5 mph with an expected batting average of .090. His expected ERA stands at an impressive 1.95, having allowed just three hits in the early stages of the 2024 campaign.
Despite past struggles in 2022 and 2023, evidenced by a 5.40 ERA during relief outings, Richards has undergone a remarkable transformation. Identifying a key area for improvement, the right-hander made significant enhancements to his changeup.
Unlike previous seasons, Richards focused on enhancing the pitch’s vertical movement rather than its velocity. This strategic adjustment has paid dividends, with the pitch exhibiting a newfound level of deception and effectiveness against opposing batters.
The pitch’s increased vertical drop has left hitters flummoxed, evident in their low swing rate and frequent strikeouts on the changeup. Richards’ refined approach has yielded promising results, as reflected in his improved contact quality metrics this season.
Implications and Outlook
While it is still early in the season and sample sizes are limited, Richards’ rejuvenated performance provides optimism for the Blue Jays. His revamped changeup, coupled with newfound success in limiting hard contact, bodes well for his future contributions.
Although walk rates remain a concern, Richards’ ability to consistently induce weak contact and earn called strikes signifies a positive trend. As he continues to refine his pitch arsenal and adapt to new strategies, Richards presents a more versatile and impactful option for the Blue Jays.
As Romano and Swanson prepare to return to the lineup, Richards’ role may shift back to its original designation. However, his transformative pitching and enhanced repertoire hint at a potential breakout season. With a diversified skill set and improved performance metrics, Richards is poised to make a substantial impact in the 2024 campaign.
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