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Sam Bankman-Fried Sentencing: The Verdict Awaited
On the upcoming Thursday, the eagerly awaited decision of a Manhattan judge will finally be uttered to Sam Bankman-Fried and his family. The founder of FTX, found guilty in October on seven counts of criminal fraud and conspiracy, will learn the duration of his sentence behind bars. Additionally, numerous risk-takers who have wagered substantial sums on the length of Bankman-Fried’s punishment are anxiously poised for the ruling.
At the forefront of this high-stakes gambling spree is the crypto wagering platform Polymarket, where a cumulative amount exceeding $657,000 has already been collectively bet on the impending outcome. The wagering spans various predictions ranging from less than five years to over 50 years, reflecting the spectrum of possibilities awaiting the disgraced billionaire.
Current projections from the bookies paint a grim picture for Bankman-Fried, with the most probable sentencing intervals ranging from 20 to 50 years. Specifically, the odds are favoring prison terms of 20-to-30 years, 30-to-40 years, and 40-to-50 years, with likelihood percentages of 26%, 27%, and 27%, respectively. Conversely, the possibility of a light six-and-a-half-year sentence, advocated by the defendant’s legal team, appears bleak as per the betting activities online.
Moreover, the prosecution’s recommendation of 40-to-50 years for Bankman-Fried seems to resonate with the wagerers, as evidenced by the betting trends. Forecasts of exceeding 50 years in captivity carry meager odds of 8%, indicating a general skepticism towards an excessively severe judgment by Judge Lewis Kaplan.
Despite the apparent gravity of the situation, the majority of bets are placed on relatively unlikely scenarios offering minimal profit margins. For instance, wagers exceeding $200,000 have been laid against Bankman-Fried receiving a 5-to-10-year sentence or a sentence surpassing 50 years, with potential profits of 2.5% and 7.5%, respectively.
Conversely, a more plausible outcome, such as a 10-to-20-year sentence, presents a lucrative opportunity for risk-takers, promising significant returns. Bets on this relatively moderate scenario could yield profits up to $7,285 for a $1,000 stake, embodying a tantalizing proposition amidst the prevailing uncertainty.
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