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Trump’s Conviction Sparks Democratic Voter Activation
Following Trump’s conviction, more Democratic voters have been mobilized against him, leading to the ex-president’s polling lead vanishing in the latest CBS News Poll.
According to the CBS News Poll, Biden and Trump are now essentially tied in both the national popular vote and battleground states. Trump leads the popular vote by 50%-49%, while Biden leads in the battleground states by the same margin.
Anti-Trump Sentiment Drives Biden Support
Interestingly, more Joe Biden voters seem to have been activated out of opposition to Trump. The current voting trend shows that Biden’s support is increasingly centered around anti-Trump sentiment rather than a strong affinity for Biden himself. Today, the majority of Biden’s supporters state that their main rationale for voting is to oppose Trump, a significant increase from March.
The sustainability of this dynamic remains a central question in the campaign. With likely voter preference almost evenly split nationally and across battleground states, every voter’s decision becomes crucial.
Uncertain Polling Dynamics
While polling numbers should be taken with caution due to their current unreliability, the evident shift in momentum towards Biden is undeniable. All polls indicate a growing momentum for the incumbent.
The key to this election lies in Democratic voter turnout. If Democrats rally behind Biden as they have since 2017, his chances of securing a second term are promising. On the other hand, Trump is banking on a low Democratic turnout to secure victory.
Trump’s Limited Voter Base
Donald Trump’s support base is not expanding, relying primarily on his loyal MAGA followers. For Trump to win, he needs Democrats to stay home, a risky strategy given the anti-Trump sentiment driving many Democrats to the polls.
Trump’s presence seems to galvanize Democratic voters against him. The more they see of Trump, the more determined they are to vote against him. If Trump falters in the upcoming debate, the momentum is likely to further shift in Biden’s favor.
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