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Saylor’s Forecast on Ethereum and SEC Decisions
During a recent presentation at the MicroStrategy World 2024 conference, MicroStrategy executive chairman Michael Saylor shared his belief that the SEC will categorize Ethereum as a security in the upcoming summer months. This classification is expected to lead to the dismissal of spot ETF applications related to Ethereum, including those submitted by prominent asset managers like BlackRock.
Saylor’s Insights
Saylor went on to predict that various other cryptocurrencies situated “down the stack” would also receive the unregistered security status. This group includes cryptocurrencies such as BNB, Solana (SOL), XRP, and Cardano (ADA). His statement emphasized the idea that these cryptocurrencies would not be embraced by Wall Street and would not be featured in any spot ETFs.
Saylor expressed, “None of them will be wrapped by a spot ETF, none of them will ever be accepted by Wall Street…”
The entrepreneur firmly positioned Bitcoin (BTC) as the sole crypto asset that enjoys complete institutional acceptance. According to Saylor, BTC stands out as the “one universal” institutional-grade crypto asset, indicating that no other cryptocurrency would reach the same level of institutional recognition.
MicroStrategy, founded by Saylor, recently disclosed that it had procured $1.65 billion worth of BTC in the first quarter of the year. This announcement coincided with the introduction of the company’s Bitcoin-based decentralized identity (DID) product.
Implications of Key ETH Decisions
While optimism initially surrounded the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs, recent developments have led to a substantial decline in expectations. Polymarket’s current odds for approval stand at a mere 11%, contrasting sharply with previous projections that exceeded an 80% likelihood of approval.
The pivotal date for the SEC’s decision is May 23, the deadline for ruling on VanEck’s proposed ETF. Concurrently, the regulator is anticipated to deliver decisions on other similar ETF applications.
Furthermore, the SEC faces the significant task of determining Ethereum’s security status. Consensys, a blockchain development company, aims to prompt a statement from the SEC affirming that ETH does not fall under the security category. Additionally, US lawmakers have sought clarification from the SEC on this matter in relation to Prometheum, another entity.
A clear classification for Ethereum could clarify how companies handle the asset. However, such a designation might influence the approval of specific products like spot ETFs and impact the extent to which companies engage with Ethereum without formal registration.
The assertions made by Saylor convey a strong stance on the future regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies and highlight the significance of upcoming decisions by the SEC.
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