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Bloomberg Analysts Reevaluate Probability of Ethereum ETF Approval
In a recent development, analysts at Bloomberg have revised their estimates for the likelihood of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving approval by May, setting the probability at a modest 35%. This adjustment by Eric Balchunas reflects a significant decrease from previous projections, which had placed the chances between 60% and 70%. The shift in sentiment indicates a growing skepticism regarding the regulatory clearance for Ethereum ETFs, signaling a shift from the previously optimistic outlook.
Low Activity Spurs Caution Among Analysts
The cautious stance adopted by analysts comes in light of recent discussions between major industry players like Coinbase, Grayscale, and the SEC concerning the conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an ETF. Despite these dialogues typically hinting at a positive trajectory, the absence of subsequent feedback from the SEC has tempered expectations. Analysts, including James Seyffart and Eleanor Terret, note a lack of activity within regulatory circles, despite the looming deadline just two months away. This contrasts with the flurry of action witnessed between the SEC and spot Bitcoin ETF issuers in the lead-up to their approvals.
James Seyffart remarked, “This Ethereum ETF cycle feels like the opposite of Bitcoin ETF approval odds at the moment. The more we see or hear (and don’t see or hear), the less optimistic I become.”
While the current outlook may seem bleak, some, like Variant Fund’s Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky, remain cautiously hopeful. Chervinsky anticipates clearer signals from the SEC in the coming weeks, despite expressing concerns that Ethereum might be treated as a security, complicating the approval process without judicial intervention. Although major investment banks like JPMorgan and TD Cowen share the skepticism towards May approval, GSR, a crypto market-making firm, initially projected a 70% chance of approval. However, they acknowledge that this optimism may diminish if progress remains elusive in the near future.
Market Insights
As of the latest data at 8:54 pm UTC on March 11, 2024, Ethereum holds the second position in terms of market capitalization with a value of $484.39 billion. Over the past 24 hours, the price of Ethereum has increased by 3.37%, with a trading volume of $29.46 billion. The overall cryptocurrency market is currently valued at $2.71 trillion, with a 24-hour volume of $170.31 billion and a Bitcoin dominance of 52.17%. Despite differing projections, the market eagerly awaits further developments in the realm of Ethereum ETF approvals.
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